Luck und Pokern

    • cyan2k
      cyan2k
      Bronze
      Dabei seit: 09.08.2005 Beiträge: 1.891
      Ich weiß nicht, ob das hier nicht evtl besser ins Selbstmanagement-Forum gehört, aber ich denke mal, der Artikel wird hier von mehreren gelesen.

      Es ist ein Artikel über Luck im Pokern, und der ein oder andere wird ihn schon kennen. Jedenfalls hat er mir sehr geholfen, mit losing Sessions oder kleineren Swings besser klar zu kommen...

      http://www.overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/LuckCalculator


      die wichtigste stelle, imho:

      Try this in PokerTracker. I'll use my numbers; I've been running bad this week. I've got a filter-by-date set which captures my last 8544 hands. I'm down 33.30 BB on 8544 hands, or -.39 BB/100.

      I bring up all my hands in Game Notes and sort by my Net, descending order. I now see my biggest losers. Let's make me luckier on those losing hands. How many do I have to convert to turn my 8544-hand unlucky streak into a winner?

      Worst hand was -10BB (nut flush down to a boat); if I won instead, I would have picked up a 30 BB pot. So changing my luck on one hand out of 8544 takes me from a -33BB run to a -3BB run. If I change my luck on my TWO worst hands, I'm a winner overall!

      8544 hands, two change, I'm a winner. It's that sensitive.

      If I change my luck on my 8 worst hands, I pick up 171BB. That would make me a +138BB player, or a 1.6 BB/100 player. Still weak for my actual average, but much better than a losing streak. Changing .09% of my hands turns it all around. That's right; less than 1% of hands. You'll find that for any sample size, if you usually take the 1% of hands with the biggest pots and reverse them, you will turn your fortunes around. You can reverse your big winners and make yourself a net loser, too.
      Luck is the impossible measure
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