Was Hoss meint.

    • DrAction
      DrAction
      Black
      Dabei seit: 18.11.2007 Beiträge: 4.336
      One of Bill Chen's favorite phrases is, "An option can never have negative value!" My favorite response is, " . . . unless you're a hoser . . ." Bill usually scowls. A New York Times article adds weight to the hoser theory, suggesting that even the better decision makers among us tend to have leaks. It validates the thinking of Xiang Yu, a general a few thousand years ago in China, who crushed his army's cooking pots and burned their ships to focus them on marching forward through the enemy. If I don't preempt him, Bill will most certainly point out it's not that options have a negative value, it's that they are simply often overpriced. The takeaway point is that they are often overpriced in ways that are difficult to see or we might otherwise not consider--opportunity costs and the like.
      I've read a fair bit about decision theory and biases in decision-making and found it to be both humbling and enormously helpful for progressing in poker. The gist is this: our instincts are supposed to help us survive, not help us make good decisions weighing long odds. To constantly improve in poker, we need to constantly challenge our instincts.

      This ties in handily with a lesson from Bill and hgfalling's MoP--if you must play exploitively, do so on the margins. The marginal hands stand to gain much more EV from exploitive play than hands where we'd generally thing the decision is clear cut. Bluff with the worst hands in your distribution no matter how sure you are the other guy has it. Even when you are right, making big (or even medium-sized) folds just can't gain you very much edge and can cost a ton. So make the small folds--in LHE, don't fold top pair when you're convinced the guy has the nuts, fold 4th pair; your opponents may be craftier than you think. Similarly, bluff the river when you miss with 43s no matter how sure you are he is going to call. It's a really important concept and I continue to be surprised when I challenge myself in this way.




      was meint ihr?
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